Speculation over “swift exit”: Will Trump end the war on Iran using the “Yemen model”?

SANAA, April 01 (YPA) – Political speculation is mounting regarding US President Donald Trump’s intentions to conclude the military confrontation with Iran amidst indicators suggest the possibility of repeating the “Yemen scenario” previously adopted by his administration, which centers on withdrawal and seeking de-escalation through regional mediation without preconditions.

Indicators of De-escalation and Mediation

Recent statements by Trump on the “Truth Social” platform have bolstered this hypothesis. He noted that Tehran has “requested a ceasefire,” while asserting that “remaining targets” could be addressed later if necessary.

Observers view this rhetoric as a parallel to his May 2025 statements regarding the war in Yemen, which paved the way for a US withdrawal facilitated by Omani mediation, despite the lack of a decisive military victory.

In a related context, ‘The Wall Street Journal’ quoted administration officials citing Washington’s readiness to end the military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This suggests an acceptance of the status quo in exchange for adhering to a specific exit timeline.

Regional Implications and the Israeli Stance

These potential shifts have sparked starkly different interpretations of the conflict’s outcome:

• The Iranian Position: Ending the war without preconditions or achieved objectives is viewed as a priority for Tehran, potentially bolstering its field and political standing in the region.
• Israeli Concerns: This scenario represents a significant challenge for “Tel Aviv.” Ending the conflict without a clear resolution would leave “Israel” facing the direct repercussions of the confrontation with Iran and Hezbollah without sustained US military cover, raising alarms over future regional security balances.

“Past experience suggests that the US administration may prefer regional mediation as a gateway for a swift exit, placing the region before a new political reality that remains militarily unresolved.”

YPA