Shifting balance of power reshapes Sanaa-Riyadh confrontation
SANAA, July 14 (YPA) – Recent developments point to a fundamental shift in the balance of power between Sanaa and Riyadh, with Sanaa claiming to have imposed a new strategic reality that has curtailed Saudi Arabia’s ability to maneuver and stripped it of key sources of leverage it had relied upon for years, particularly air superiority and the blockade.
According to the report, this shift became evident through Sanaa’s effective breach of the air blockade.
Despite warnings and statements issued by Saudi Arabia and the Saudi-backed Aden government seeking to prevent the return of the Yemeni delegation that had attended the funeral of Sayyed Ali Khamenei in Tehran aboard an Iranian aircraft, Sanaa proceeded with the flight.
The report said that despite a Saudi strike on the runway of Sanaa International Airport, the Iranian civilian aircraft—carrying the delegation as well as Yemeni patients stranded abroad—landed safely at Hodeida Airport, disregarding Saudi warnings and overcoming attempts to block its arrival.
The report argued that Sanaa did not limit itself to defensive measures but moved to establish new deterrence equations through offensive action. It said missile forces and drone units targeted Saudi Arabia’s Abha Airport with several missiles and drones in response to the strike on Sanaa Airport.
According to the report, the response went beyond establishing an “airport-for-airport” equation by introducing a broader concept of “blockade for blockade.” It stated that Sanaa’s forces announced a ban on flights through Saudi airspace and warned international airlines against operating over the Kingdom until the blockade on Sanaa International Airport is fully lifted.
The report further contended that this offensive capability is complemented by a growing ability to defend Yemeni airspace. It cited the reported downing of a Saudi-operated Wing Loong military drone over Bayda province while conducting what Sanaa described as hostile activities, arguing that the incident undermined Riyadh’s long-standing advantage in air superiority.
Against this backdrop, the report suggested that political and military developments could compel Riyadh to reassess its approach to Sanaa Airport. It argues that the costs of maintaining the blockade are increasing and that the airport issue has evolved from a source of pressure on Sanaa into one capable of generating reciprocal pressure on Saudi Arabia.
The report maintained that the newly announced restrictions on Saudi airspace, and their potential impact on aviation, trade, and economic interests, could make continued restrictions on Sanaa Airport increasingly costly if they begin affecting sectors tied to air travel and economic stability.
The report also interpreted Saudi Arabia’s decision not to respond militarily to the reported strike on Abha Airport as an indication that Riyadh attempts to contain the escalation and avoid a return to open confrontation with Sanaa, potentially encouraging efforts to find an outcome that safeguards Saudi interests.
Based on this assessment, the report concluded that easing restrictions on Sanaa International Airport could become a practical option for Riyadh in order to avoid a more costly escalation, arguing that the blockade no longer serves its previous objectives while Sanaa has demonstrated an ability to turn pressure imposed against it into instruments of deterrence.
In conclusion, the report argued that the dispute over Sanaa Airport has evolved beyond a humanitarian or aviation issue into a test of influence and the ability to impose strategic conditions.
It concluded that Riyadh now faces a choice between maintaining the blockade despite its growing consequences or adapting to a new equation imposed by Sanaa—one in which, according to the report, the blockade is no longer a one-way instrument of pressure.