Saudi-UAE conflict in eastern Yemen reaches critical turning point
SANAA, Dec. 19 (YPA) – In a dangerous development signaling an unprecedented explosion within the Saudi-led coalition camp, the British newspaper “The Guardian” revealed that the Saudi-Emirati conflict in eastern Yemen has reached a highly sensitive stage.
Riyadh has issued a stern warning to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), going as far as threatening direct airstrikes against its positions in the governorates of Hadramout and Mahra, eastern Yemen.
“A Radical Shift in Dynamics”
This direct military threat reflects a fundamental shift in the relationship between the two main pillars of the coalition, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The dispute is no longer merely a divergence of political agendas but has moved to the brink of armed confrontation, threatening to end the STC’s presence in the eastern regions.
Observers believe this threat of aerial bombardment reflects the Kingdom’s exhaustion with the STC’s “policy of imposing a fait accompli” in coordination with Abu Dhabi—a policy that has weakened the pro-coalition government’s front and scattered its efforts.
“Riyadh’s Red Line”
Riyadh’s insistence on clearing Hadramout and Mahra of STC forces aims to consolidate the influence of local forces loyal to Saudi Arabia under its direct supervision. This puts the Emirati strategy in Yemen to its toughest test since the military intervention began in 2015.
Reports indicate that demands for the STC’s withdrawal are gaining broad popular and political momentum. These forces are being accused of being “irregular entities” that have destabilized regions that were once considered the most secure models in the country. Saudi Arabia appears more determined than ever to end the chaos and return these forces to their previous positions, backed by widespread tribal and political rejection from the people of Hadramout.
This escalation suggests that Riyadh has drawn a military “red line” in the two eastern provinces, viewing the control of UAE-aligned forces as a direct infringement on its share of the Yemeni landscape. This implies that the coming days may witness a forced reshaping of the map of influence in the south and east.
“Administrative Arrangements and Relocating the Capital”
On the political and administrative levels, Saudi Arabia has begun arrangements for the post-expulsion phase of UAE-backed factions. Riyadh granted President of “the Presidential Leadership Council”, Rashad al-Alimi, the green light to arrange the transfer of the “temporary capital” from Aden. This relocation was reportedly discussed during a meeting between al-Alimi and Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman.
Sources suggest that the city of Sayoun may serve as the alternative capital, with expectations that Saudi-backed “Dera Al-Watan” factions will take control as part of a deployment plan covering the Wadi and Desert regions of Hadramout reaching the coast.
Al-Alimi’s office has instructed all ministers and officials to leave Aden immediately. Moving the capital from Aden represents a crushing blow to the STC, stripping it of its most significant gain since its establishment in 2017. This move would leave the STC facing its supporters while potentially being besieged by air and sea, alongside a potential economic collapse.
“Political Ultimatums”
Concurrently, Saudi Arabia requested that ministers of the Bin Burik government currently in Aden depart quickly. At Saudi urging, Bin Burik requested ministers—including Defense Minister Mohsen al-Daeri—to leave the city, stating that failure to do so would be considered implicit support for the STC.
Conversely, the STC imposed restrictions on the departure of ministers, requiring prior approval, and gave ministers currently in Riyadh and Cairo one week to return to Aden or face replacement by deputies previously appointed by the STC.
“U.S. Intervention and Economic Fears”
Amidst this escalation, the United States has intensified its movements due to fears of a total collapse in Aden. U.S. Ambassador to Yemen Steven Fagin conducted a series of late-night communications with various parties, including the Governor of Marib, Sultan al-Arada. The talks focused on lifting the blockade on Aden and securing the arrival of gas tankers.
Al-Arada set conditions for resuming gas pumping, including ending the STC’s control over the Hadramout plateau, at a time when STC-controlled areas are suffering a severe fuel crisis.
The U.S. Ambassador also contacted the Governor of the Central Bank in Aden, Ahmed Al-Mabaqi, to review the local currency’s status. There are expectations of a currency collapse if the conflict continues, especially with Saudi Arabia hinting at withdrawing its latest deposit, which could send the exchange rate to unprecedented lows.
These moves reveal American anxieties that the economic stability measures they worked to achieve may collapse, leading to further deterioration in areas under STC influence.
YPA