CSIS Study: Iran war exposes risks of relying on “Israel” for Gulf security
SANAA, July 11 (YPA) – A recent study by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) concluded that recent military confrontations with Iran have altered security calculations in the Gulf region, exposing the risks of relying on security and military partnerships with Israel as a foundation for regional stability.
The study, authored by Michael Ratney and Abdullah Al-Hanaki under the title “How War with Iran Affects the US-Saudi Partnership and the Prospects for Normalization with Israel,” said the Emirati experience demonstrates that security cooperation with Tel Aviv may have become a direct security liability.
It noted that the UAE has emerged as one of the countries most exposed to potential military targeting amid escalating tensions due to its close ties with Israel.
According to the report, Abu Dhabi’s efforts to strengthen its defenses through the acquisition of Israeli occupation’s Iron Dome systems and the deployment of personnel to operate them failed to provide the expected security shield. Instead, the study argued, these steps increased the UAE’s exposure to Iranian targeting, sending a warning to other Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, that dependence on Israeli military capabilities could raise rather than reduce security risks.
The study said the UAE’s experience has reinforced Saudi doubts over the strategic value of normalization with Israeli occupation. It explained that the earlier view of normalization as a pathway to obtaining advanced military technology and improving regional security has been challenged by recent developments, making Riyadh more cautious toward the issue.
The researchers highlighted a strategic dilemma created by the conflict: if military operations have significantly weakened Iran, Gulf states would have less incentive to pursue normalization as a means of countering the Iranian threat. However, if Tehran retains the ability to respond effectively, countries aligned with the occupation could remain among the most vulnerable, making the costs of normalization outweigh its possible benefits.
The report also examined wider regional implications, stating that the occupation’s conduct of military operations in Gaza and the expansion of confrontations into Lebanon and Syria have influenced Arab public perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force. This, it said, has increased the political challenges facing Arab governments seeking to justify normalization initiatives domestically.
The CSIS study concluded that the normalization process has become more complicated and less likely than before the war, as recent events have undermined the assumption that security ties with the occupation could provide Gulf countries with protection from external threats.
AA